Quick comment from Daewoo on rupiah spike
Rupiah is up 4.4% @ IDR13,711
- Trump to pick up government spending, which may drive inflation higher
- Market is speculating that the Fed may have to raise interest rates faster
-than-expected to tame inflation
- Given the secular trend of FX rate hinges on GDP growth and interest rate direction of the two countries, higher government spending from US should improve growth outlook while faster
-than-expected rate hike by the Fed should drive the value of the greenback.
- The question is… whether President-elect Trump will be able to spend with lower revenue forecast (as a quick reminder, he was campaigning that he wants tax cuts)
Hari ini rupiah melemah -3.18% ke level 13.570,- disebabkan beberapa hal :
-kemenangan Donald Trump (partai republik) di USA
-Indonesia mengalami Twin deficit (Defisit fiskal dan Curent Account Defisit hampir 2% dari GDP).
-sepanjang tahun ini pertumbuhan pasar saham sudah mencapai dobel digit
-Foreign Ownership di SBN sudah cukup tinggi per september 38.15%, sehingga rentan tejadi arus keluar.
Sektor yg diuntungkan dengan pelemahan rupiah diantaranya pertambangan dan Emiten emiten yang berbasis eksportir seperti Saham ADRO, SRIL.