Higher For Longer Potensi Memicu Hard Landing

 

Bank of America (BofA) Global Research

Weekly Flows: $70.8bn to cash, $3.3bn to stocks, $1.1bn from gold, $2.5bn from bonds. 

BofA View: Still bearish risk assets on price of money, higher-for-longer = hard landing, impatiently waiting for capitulation selling + recession/credit event to trigger bullish policy easing and trigger big rally & assets that have already discounted recession. 

$158bn inflows to Treasuries YTD. Uang terus mengalir masuk ke surat utang AS

Report PDF lengkap dari BofA dapatkan di channel telegram Rikopedia klik di sini

Summary report BofA : Uang paling banyak mengalir ke cash (Money market fund) & Treasuries. Higher for longer potensi picu hard landing. BofA menunggu capitulation selling + recession/credit event yang akan memicu kebijakan pelonggaran moneter (Easing). Saat bank sentral berubah kebijakan dari pengetatan ke pelonggaran akan memicu bullish dan big rally

Data aliran uang yang masuk ke money market funds (CASH). Penyebab likuiditas kering karena uang banyak masuk ke Money market funds dan US treasury. Jika The Fed mulai EASING or pelonggaran estimasi uang yang banyak tersimpan di money market funds akan masuk ke pasar saham lagi. 

Ikuti kemana big money mengalir