Rikopedia Research

  In Summary: Asset Performance YTD: - Crypto has performed the best at 32.2%, while government bonds have seen negative returns at -3.2%. - Japanese banks are outperforming the Nasdaq. - Bonds are currently in trend, with yields expected to make significant moves. - The NYSE is up 2.7% YTD but had a tough year in 2022. - Global stock performance has been mixed since the last Fed hike. Market Flows: - Bonds, especially Treasuries, continue to attract inflows. - Credit inflows contrast with high-yield bond outflows. - EM debt has seen consistent outflows. - US equities experienced their largest weekly outflow since December 2022. - Europe equities have faced 28 straight weeks of outflows. BofA Private Clients: - Private clients are selling stocks but keeping cash and T-bill inflows strong. - They have been buying value, growth, and Japan ETFs while selling TIPS, financials, and low volatility ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: - The indicator dropped slightly due to outflows from eme

  Data return asset dan sektor saat era inflasi tinggi dan suku bunga tinggi di tahun 70an. Source : BofA Higher inflation & interest rates mean real assets outperform financial assets (Chart 4); as in 1970s important to note strong nominal economic growth not a disaster for financial assets (e.g. stocks annualized decent 8% return in 1970s – Chart 5), just that high nominal returns mostly accounted for by inflation.

  BofA : Inflows to Treasuries continue 32nd straight week.  Update data terbaru dari Bank of America (BofA) uang terus mengalir masuk ke US treasury (Surat utang AS). Dengan yield di atas 4% surat utang AS sangat menarik buat big money. Aman tanpa resiko. 

  Harga oil terus meroket dampak pemangkasan output Rusia dan Arab saudi yang membuat supply shortfall. Jika inflasi naik lagi dampak naiknya harga oil bank sentral akan menghadapi tugas yang menantang dalam mengatur soft landing (menurunkan inflasi tanpa resesi). Jika nantinya bank sentral merespons dengan kebijakan yang lebih ketat lagi dampaknya akan mengganggu narasi Goldilocks yang muncul tahun ini.

  BofA Research: Sell the Last Hike "Sell the last rate hike" strategy tends to work when monetary policy needs to work harder to slow economy in inflationary era (e.g. 1970s/1980s - Table 2); 5-year Treasury at 5% we think buy, meantime stagflationary barbell in stocks (long energy, long staples), or contrarian trades via long "hard landing" plays e.g. REITs, retail (XRT), banks (BKX) vs "no landing" plays Mag7, SOX, XHB, XLI, XBD; and own gold as hedge against nightmare of higher yields and lower US dollar on loss of credibility of US policy makers.

  HIGHER FOR LONGER: The Fed memproyeksikan kenaikan suku bunga lagi di akhir tahun dan kebijakan moneter tetap diperketat secara signifikan hingga tahun 2024. Higher for longer dampaknya akan picu slowdown. 🏛 The Fed keeps its policy rate at a target range of 5.25% - 5.50%, a 22-year high. 📈 The updated dotplot signals one more hike for 2023 and reinforces the higher for longer narrative. ➡️ For the end of 2024, the officials see a federal funds rate of 5.1% as appropriate, an implied 50bp cut. In June their median estimate was 4.6%, an implied 100bp cut. Uncertainty, however, remains for 2024 and especially going out to 2025.

  CAPITAL OUTFLOW  Yield US treasury terus meroket membuat spread antara yield bond US dengan yield bond dalam negeri semakin tipis. Memicu capital outflow