Indonesian government’s plan to cut nickel supply to support prices.
The government’s plan to reduce nickel miners’ RKAB to 260.0mn–270.0mn wmt this year (below the estimated domestic demand of 295.0mn wmt in 2025) has driven a sharp rise in nickel prices and lifted nickel ore premiums above the official benchmark price (HPM).
Although the RKAB has yet to be fully finalized, as miners are typically allowed to submit revisions in 2H, the policy has created uncertainty over ore availability, particularly for smelters reliant on third-party suppliers and imported feedstock.
Indonesia imported approx. 15.8mn wmt of nickel ores in 2025, up from around 10.0mn wmt in 2024, primarily from the Philippines. With tighter RKAB quotas, imports are projected to exceed 20.0mn wmt, increasing Indonesia’s reliance on external supply to offset the domestic shortfall.
HRUM target mansek 1500, Macquarie RX 1900.