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Riset Saham MEDCO



A major oil and gas player with diversified assets

SAHAM MEDC : Initiate coverage at Buy with a target price of IDR1,430

One of leading oil and gas producers with prudent diversification

As one of the major listed O&G players in Indonesia, MEDC has an impressive M&A track record in oil and gas assets (it almost doubled its production after the acquisition of Corridor Block [unlisted] in 2022). In recent years, MEDC has been expanding its exposure in power
business and copper & gold mining. Assuming oil prices of USD80/75/bbl in FY23F/24F, we estimate MEDC can generate healthy operating cashflow of ~USD500-900mn, enabling it to deleverage while pursuing another fruitful asset. Since MEDC’s ASP tracks crude oil prices,

our price assumption translates into revenue/EBITDA declines of 8%/22% y-y in FY23F. Our scenario analysis suggests every USD5/bbl change in oil price impacts MEDC’s revenue/EBITDA by 4%/7% and our TP by 10% (Fig. 43 ) .

Amman Mineral (AMMN IJ, Not rated) IPO unlocks hidden value

We believe AMMN IPO in July 2023 benefits MEDC as it can unlock the value of its non-oil and gas assets. AMMN operates Batu Hijau and Elang mines, both among the largest copper and gold assets in Indonesia. AMMN IPO, valued at USD8.1bn, raised proceeds of ~USD715mn. AMMN currently trades at a market cap of USD14bn, and the 21% stake held by MEDC is worth USD2.9bn, higher than MEDC’s current market cap. In 2022, AMMN booked USD1bn of earnings, and contributed ~USD253mn (48% of MEDC’s total FY22 earnings) to MEDC. We expect earnings contribution from AMMN to decline in FY23F due to the flooding incident in mines and hurdles related to export license issuance in 2Q.

Improving financial profile and steady deleveraging; initiate at Buy (~36% implied upside)

In view of its enlarged production capacity, we believe MEDC is on track to deleverage, starting with the repayment of the USD850mn worth Corridor acquisition debt before 2025F. We expect its net gearing to improve to 1.6x with an interest coverage ratio of ~2.9x in FY23F (Fig. 37 ). We initiate coverage at Buy, with a TP of IDR1,430 based on: 1) 25% discount to peers’ EV/EBITDA multiple for its oil and gas business; 2) 30% discount to peers’ EV/EBITDA multiple for its power business; and 3) EV/resources for its stake in AMMN valued at a 25% discount. Our TP implies 4.1x FY23F EV/EBITDA, below its five-year average of 5.1x. The stock currently trades at 3.6x. Downside risks include: 1) uncertain macroeconomic conditions leading to lower energy prices, 2) OPEC+ decisions (OPEC+ pumps ~40% of the world’s crude supply); and 3) China’s refining industry policy could play a crucial role in balancing the crude oil and product markets.

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