Langsung ke konten utama

Rangkuman Report Bank of America Minggu Ini

 

Rangkumat Report Bank of America Minggu Ini
In Summary:

Asset Performance YTD:
- Crypto has performed the best at 32.2%, while government bonds have seen negative returns at -3.2%.
- Japanese banks are outperforming the Nasdaq.
- Bonds are currently in trend, with yields expected to make significant moves.
- The NYSE is up 2.7% YTD but had a tough year in 2022.
- Global stock performance has been mixed since the last Fed hike.

Market Flows:
- Bonds, especially Treasuries, continue to attract inflows.
- Credit inflows contrast with high-yield bond outflows.
- EM debt has seen consistent outflows.
- US equities experienced their largest weekly outflow since December 2022.
- Europe equities have faced 28 straight weeks of outflows.

BofA Private Clients:
- Private clients are selling stocks but keeping cash and T-bill inflows strong.
- They have been buying value, growth, and Japan ETFs while selling TIPS, financials, and low volatility ETFs.

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator:
- The indicator dropped slightly due to outflows from emerging market debt and high-yield bonds.

Secular View:
- The 2020s are characterized by shifts towards fiscal excess, labor-focused policies, protectionism, and climate goals, signaling a new era of inflationary market cycles.
- A "permanent portfolio" with 25% each in cash, commodities, bonds, and stocks is proposed to outperform a traditional 60/40 portfolio.
- Real assets are expected to outperform financial assets in a higher inflation and interest rate environment.

Cyclical View:
- The surprise in H1'23 was "no recession," while H2'23 is expected to bring "higher-for-longer" rates and tighter financial conditions.
- The transition from "lower-for-longer" rates to "higher-for-longer" rates may lead to a hard landing and market volatility in H1'24.
- Various economic indicators are showing signs of a potential hard landing.

Investment Strategy:
- The "sell the last rate hike" strategy may work well in an inflationary era.
- Gold is suggested as a hedge against higher yields and a lower US dollar.
- The relationship between bond yields and equity leaders is crucial to watch for market direction.

Monopolistic Bull Market:
- The S&P 500 is up 15% YTD, but much of this gain is concentrated in a few major companies.
- The bull market is largely driven by monopolies and oligopolies, with certain stocks having high P/E ratios.
- The next bull market may start with more affordable stocks.

Tales of the Unexpected:
- Japan's bond yields are expected to trade above China's in 2024.
- Japanese inflation is on the rise, with expectations for 4-4.5% in H1'24.
- BofA economists and strategists anticipate the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to end negative interest rates and yield curve control in Q1'24.

Postingan populer dari blog ini

Membership Rikopedia

Selamat datang di halaman Registrasi membership Rikopedia Research. Dengan join membership anda akan mendapatkan update saham pilihan Rikopedia. Bimbingan melihat peluang di pasar saham dari sudut pandang trader dan investor.   Kinerja Portofolio Rikopedia dan testimoni member klik  di sini Fasilitas membership detailnya sebagai berikut : Member akan mendapatkan update saham yang masuk dan keluar portofolio Rikopedia. Informasi beli dan jual secara spesifik. Analisa saham secara teknikal, fundamental & analisa makro. Update news, Sentimen, Trading plan, Money dan risk management. Member bisa tanya jawab langsung melalui whatsapp. Sharing strategy trading dan investasi saham berdasarkan pengalaman Rikopedia sejak tahun 2008 Biaya join membership Rp.500,000/Bulan. Bagi anda yang berminat join membership dapat melakukan transfer ke rekening di bawah ini: 1. Bank Mandiri 1440013474108 Rikosiwi sandi Saputro. 2. Bank BCA 7915239226 Rikosiwi sandi Saputro. Members

Portofolio Rikopedia dan Testimoni Member

Screenshot salah satu portofolio Rikopedia dengan modal awal 500 juta Kinerja Tahun 2018 Kinerja Tahun 2019 Januari February Maret April Mei Juni July  Agustus  September Oktober November  Desember Kinerja Tahun 2020 Tanggal 11 Mei akumulasi BBRI 2250 lot harga 2630 Trading SCMA 27-28 Mei 2020  Tanggal 4 Juni 2020 profit 36 juta dari BBNI Profit 68 Juta dari saham BBNI Profit 37 juta dari saham ELSA Profit 40 juta tanggal 19 Juni 2020  Profit 61 Juta tanggal 3 July 2020                                      Tanggal 19 Oktober 2020 Rikopedia beli BSDE 18361 lot November 2020 Desember 2020 Kinerja Tahun 2021 Januari 2021 Trading ELSA 27 Januari 2021 Bulan February profit 268 juta Bulan Maret minus 5 juta PTBA profit 123 juta BBTN profit 65 juta                                                         Porto