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BofA September Global Fund Manager Survey

 

BofA September Global Fund Manager Survey


Report dalam bentuk PDF lengkapnya di channel telegram Rikopedia. Cek postingan tanggal 18 Sept 2023.

The current sentiment among FMS (Fund Manager Survey) investors reflects a shift in market dynamics, with a move away from extreme bearishness, although it has not yet reached a fully bullish stance. Here's a summary of the key points:

Investor Sentiment:

- Global equity allocation has reached a 17-month high, indicating reduced bearishness.
- Cash levels remain relatively high at 4.9%, indicating caution.
- There has been a significant shift in relative exposure, with a record increase in investment in US equities and a record decrease in Emerging Market (EM) equities. This is due to waning optimism about China's growth, which has fallen to "lockdown lows."
- BofA Bull & Bull Indicator has risen to 4.1, suggesting a moderate bullish sentiment.

FMS Convictions:

a. The majority (74%) believe in a "soft or no landing" scenario for the economy.
b. A significant portion (75%) expect short-term interest rates to fall.
c. There is a consensus (0%) to avoid investing in China, as there is little expectation of stronger growth in the country.
d. Japan is favored, with the largest Overweight (OW) position since December 2018.
e. A strong conviction (77%) exists for investing in quality assets.
f. US tech is seen as the most crowded trade by 55% of respondents.

Macro Outlook:

- A net -53% of investors are pessimistic about global growth, but only 21% foresee a hard landing, and 27% expect no recession at all.
- Inflation expectations have risen to their highest level since May 2022.
- Sticky inflation and hawkish central banks are still considered the biggest "tail risk" by 40% of respondents.

Policy Views:

- A majority (6/10) believe that the Federal Reserve is done with its policies (contrasting with July when 9/10 thought otherwise).
- 74% anticipate the first Fed rate cut in either Q2 or H2 2024.
- However, there is skepticism about China's policy, with only 15% expecting a significant fiscal stimulus. Investors see China's real estate market as the top source for the next global credit event.

FMS Contrarian Views:

- Risk asset bears are seen as vulnerable to a potential China recovery or the end of geopolitical tensions. Contrarian positions include going long on high-yield bonds (HY), real estate investment trusts (REITs), Europe, Emerging Markets, and China, while shorting the US dollar.
- Risk asset bulls may be at risk if US interest rates rise for a prolonged period or a hard landing scenario materializes. Contrarian positions include going long on bonds, utilities, and shorting US tech stocks and Japanese assets.

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